Should the United States Intervene Libyan Conflict

[ViciousRidah]

G8 leaders consider Libya no-fly zone

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12735491

Foreign ministers from the Group of Eight major world powers are meeting in Paris to consider whether to back calls for a no-fly zone over Libya.

Britain and France are spearheading moves to prevent further air attacks on rebels by forces loyal to Col Gaddafi.

The Arab League supports a UN mandate but Russia has so far opposed military intervention and the US, Italy and Germany have also voiced reservations.

The UN Security Council is expected to consult on the proposal later.

Rebel leaders have appealed for international help in limiting Col Gaddafi's resources as his forces maintain their onslaught on rebel positions in the east of Libya.

But diplomatic sources have told the BBC that no UN resolution is on the table yet and discussions will centre on a "broad range" of issues that might be part of a new security council resolution, not just a no-fly zone.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was due to meet French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe in Paris late on Monday afternoon.

Before they met, US officials denied a report suggesting a decision on supporting intervention on the ground had already been made. "That is a decision, a political decision ultimately, that has not been taken," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told US TV network MSNBC.

Among the biggest opponents of a no-fly zone is Turkey whose Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told an international forum in Istanbul on Monday that intervention might be "counter-productive" and could have "dangerous consequences".

Although not a member of the G8, Turkey is part of Nato, which is expected to consider a no-fly zone on Tuesday.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague told BBC Radio that while a UN Security Council resolution was the "cleanest and simplest" way of securing a legal foundation for military intervention, countries were entitled under international law "in cases of great, overwhelming humanitarian need".

Mr Hague said that if Col Gaddafi were able to recapture much of the territory lost to rebel forces then it would be a "long nightmare for the Libyan people".

The G8 is made up of the US, Russia, Britain France, Germany and Italy, along with Canada and Japan.

Although much of the Paris meeting will be taken up by the issue of intervention in Libya, the foreign ministers will also discuss the Japanese earthquake and its aftermath.

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto is due to have separate meetings with his Russian, US and French counterparts.

[ViciousRidah]

Libya crisis: no 'happy ending' for Colonel Gaddafi

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12720643

ames Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, controversially told Congress on Thursday that "over the longer term ... the [Libyan] regime will prevail". His comments provoked a furore, even prompting the White House to insist that the president did not agree.

But despite a renewed sense of momentum for the regime, Mr Clapper is probably wrong.

Over the past few days, Col Gaddafi's forces have taken Zawiya and Ras Lanuf.

The regime continues to enjoy a flow of oil export revenues.

The UN Security Council, NATO, and Arab states are mired in indecision about the legality, legitimacy, and necessity of a no-fly zone, let alone further military action.

And it is clear that the rebels do not enjoy the full-throated support of swathes of the defected army, with many thousands of troops in the east still uncommitted.

The rebels' vision of a relentless push westwards, linking up with liberated western cities to march on Tripoli, has been extinguished.

The rebels, then, cannot prevail in the foreseeable future. The core security forces commanded by the regime remain intensely loyal and well-armed, so a coup is equally unlikely.

But this counter-offensive should not obscure the fact that Col Gaddafi's political future will be an unhappy one.
A rump state
A pro-Gaddafi soldier stands on a tank next to a destroyed building in the main square of Zawiya, Libya, 11 March 2011 Pro-Gaddafi forces recaptured Zawiya but at a heavy cost

In the unlikely event that the opposition bastion of Benghazi collapses, Col Gaddafi would struggle to administer the city or its surroundings in the face of intense guerrilla warfare.

Though Libya lacks the mountainous terrain conducive to insurgencies, the urban warfare seen in Zawiya is indicative of the grave cost that would be imposed on any occupying force.

Sporadic acts of sabotage against oil refineries would hit the regime's treasury, and currently ambivalent army units in the east - such as the 2,000 defectors loyal to Major Ahmed Qetrani - might be provoked into mobilising.

Col Gaddafi's intelligence services lack extensive human sources in the east, and would struggle to extirpate an urban insurgency that would wear down the morale of conscript forces and divert large numbers of personnel from other restive areas.

The Libyan leader would also face international isolation, a reversion to his pariah status of the 1980s and 1990s, and crippling sanctions.

Oil export revenues, trade, and engagement would be permanently curbed. Even Russia has frozen arms sales to Libya.

Libyan diplomats and officials, having enjoyed eight years of rehabilitation into the international community, will chafe under this pressure, and may gradually transform into focal points for resistance within the regime.

This strangulation of funds and firepower will not be decisive in itself, but it will render the rebel-regime balance somewhat less lop-sided.

These measures are likely to be ratcheted upwards, particularly as foreign powers are eager to avoid a military intervention.

Assistance to the rebels may well have begun, and it is likely to increase over time as foreign intelligence agencies and militaries - particularly those from Britain, France, and the United States - develop ties to trusted members of the opposition.

Both the Arab League and the Gulf Co-operation Council have swung against Col Gaddafi, and even the African Union - a club welcoming to dictators - is hardly supportive after years of suffering Col Gaddafi's pan-African posturing.
Civil war
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This is why it is mistaken to conclude that Col Gaddafi "will prevail".

What is far more likely than a regime victory is a protracted struggle, much as Saddam Hussein ruled over a rump Iraqi state in the dozen years after 1991.

Faced with no-fly zones across much of his territory, Saddam inflicted enormous damage on Shia communities in the south but remained hemmed in.

But this sort of de facto partition is less of a stable equilibrium in Libya than it was in Iraq.

Libya's rebels are in a better position than Iraq's. Libya's second-largest state-owned oil company, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, has announced plans to use oil sales to fund the opposition.

And while its facilities are weakened by the exodus of foreign expertise and remain vulnerable to aerial attack by the government, Col Gaddafi will be self-deterred from ramping up airstrikes for fear of tipping the debate on a no-fly zone in favour of would-be interveners.

Moreover, the military balance is fluid - there is every chance of rebels retaking Ras Lanuf.

And though other countries are unlikely to follow France in recognising the self-declared National Council, its engagement with Western states will certainly deepen, furnishing it with legitimacy and probably funds.

We should be wary of concluding that, just because Gaddafi is doomed to a tenuous grip on Libya, the rebels have any better chance of attaining their goals through military struggle.

Between 1960 and 1999, civil wars stretched on average to over seven years.

Libya's has not yet lasted a month.

Shashank Joshi is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defence think-tank in London, and a doctoral student of international relations at Harvard University.

[ViciousRidah]

can one of the mods edit the title of the this thread to ''Should the United States Intervene Libyan Conflict''

[Quepolo3]

Absolutely Not. We can't afford it, and we need to mind our own business. Handle the situations in our country first. Let Libya handle Libya, or let some other country get in the middle of that conflict.

[ViciousRidah]

^^ Your absolutely right, but the United States is really considering on enforcing a new fly zone . They are not on good terms with Libya only EU country that does have some good relations with Libya is Italy, Italy's company ENI has been making large amounts of revenue there.

But I agree if we intervene in Libya we will then put to much strain on our budget.

[alexalonso]

Since the Arab League of nations has agreed that Ghadaffi needs to go, then the US should be able to assist without Muslim Extremists claiming that the USA is trying to be the police of the world. Since the No-Fly is going to be inposed, in addition of more military action, Saudia Arabia, Jordon, France, and other countries should take the lead, and the US should just assist with planes, fuel, ammunition, but not in soldiers.

[Quepolo3]

Since the Arab League of nations has agreed that Ghadaffi needs to go, then the US should be able to assist without Muslim Extremists claiming that the USA is trying to be the police of the world. Since the No-Fly is going to be inposed, in addition of more military action, Saudia Arabia, Jordon, France, and other countries should take the lead, and the US should just assist with planes, fuel, ammunition, but not in soldiers.

I hope you're right alex. If we do assist in anyway, they need to send some ends or some oil in exchange. I think that the chineese will inevitably determine what happens in Libya, because of their oil interests.

[alexalonso]

Since Barack Obama said this is a humanitarian mission, will he free the people of Zimbabwe who are under the ruthless dictator Robert Mugabi?

[Quepolo3]

Since Barack Obama said this is a humanitarian mission, will he free the people of Zimbabwe who are under the ruthless dictator Robert Mugabi?

Do they have oil? If so, yes. If not, hell no.

[ViciousRidah]

The US and Western Europe already does big business with Zimbabwe,western companies like AMF operate in Zimbabwe,

On that same note, Mugabe is not that much of bad president as people portray him to be remember ZImbabwe has a literacy rate of 97% the highest in Africa.He definitely needs to step down and he for damn sure is no angel but he has played fair when it comes to WESTERN EUROPE, its just that Mugabe knows how to beat them at their own game.

[Quepolo3]

The US and Western Europe already does big business with Zimbabwe,western companies like AMF operate in Zimbabwe,

On that same note, Mugabe is not that much of bad president as people portray him to be remember ZImbabwe has a literacy rate of 97% the highest in Africa.He definitely needs to step down and he for damn sure is no angel but he has played fair when it comes to WESTERN EUROPE, its just that Mugabe knows how to beat them at their own game.

@ ViciousRidah- I'm not real knowledgable about what Mugabe has done as president, but I'm faily sure that he has been villanized in the media for being a ruthless dictator. But throughout history, the US has done business with countries that have repressive regimes. However, there is one fact that remains the same, which is; the US will only get involved in military assistance if the country has oil, or if its geographic location is close to one of our perceived enemies.

[ViciousRidah]

@QuePolo

You are right the US has villanized Mugabe, but Mubarak was repressive but they did not give him a bad rep, Seso Seko was a villain but they did not give him a bad rep,Saud family are one of the most exploitive regimes but they don't give them a bad rep either.

I agree with you though they will not make bid to get rid of Mugabe since that country doesn't have oil.

[TarHeelRED]

Since Barack Obama said this is a humanitarian mission, will he free the people of Zimbabwe who are under the ruthless dictator Robert Mugabi?

Do they have oil? If so, yes. If not, hell no.

LOL!!

[TarHeelRED]

Absolutely Not. We can't afford it, and we need to mind our own business. Handle the situations in our country first. Let Libya handle Libya, or let some other country get in the middle of that conflict.

Agreed, plus he didn't get the ok from Congress and only Congress can declare war. That didn't matter though. Obama said, "It was a UN mandate". I guess the Constitution doesn't. And then comes a 1 world govt......